Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS61 KPBZ 020129
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
829 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather remains through tonight with cooler temperatures,
but above average temperatures with intermittent rain chances
are expected into next week. Another widespread precipitation
system is possible by mid-to-late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather through tonight with cooler temperatures.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Other than further tweaks to sky cover and dewpoints, no changes
were needed to the forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...

Clouds will increase overnight as high pressure advances
eastward and an upper shortwave digs across the Great Lakes.
With the shift in the surface high, winds veer to southeasterly
overnight. Timing of clouds and the wind shift will determine
what overnight lows get down to. Latest timing suggests low
temperatures drop quickly after sunset and into the low 20s
across most of the area (teens north of I-80) by Midnight, at
which point the shift to southeasterly winds and increasing
cloud cover will act to mitigate further cooling and actually
help moderate temperatures closer to ~30 degrees most places
(20s north of I-80) by sunrise Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increasing warmth again Sunday and Monday.
- Rain and rain/snow mix mainly north of Pittsburgh Sunday
  afternoon and again Monday night.
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A shortwave clipper system will graze the area on Sunday as
southwesterly surface flow increases warm advection. Light
precipitation will briefly return to the area by Sunday
afternoon, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Given warming
temperatures, precipitation will be rain for most. However, will
need to monitor temperature trends in a warm nose that develops
around 925-850mb, particularly up along and north of the I-80
corridor where surface temperatures will at least start out
around/below freezing. Latest guidance maintains temperatures
just below freezing in that warm nose layer, which would allow
for snow/rain to be the dominant weather types (depending on
near-surface temps). However, if temperatures in that layer
trend any warmer, it`s possible enough melting could occur for
sleet and/or freezing rain to mix in. Not enough confidence in
the latter to warrant issuing any headlines at this time, but
it will be something to keep an eye on. Precipitation will
quickly exit Sunday evening.

Continued warm advection in southwesterly flow will promote warm
overnight temperatures into Monday, with much of the area in the
30s to lower 40s. High temperatures on Monday climb into the
upper 40s along/north of I-80 to mid/upper 50s farther south. A
cold front will then drop across the area Monday night,
bringing a low probability rain chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather on Tuesday.
- Rain and snow chances return Wednesday/Thursday and again
  Saturday as a series of low pressure systems move through.
- Temperature remains above-average.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble clusters indicate generally zonal flow for the eastern
CONUS into midweek as a closed low sits over the PacNW. There
appears to be relatively high confidence in ridging developing
downstream of the closed low, with uncertainty for the ern CONUS
related mainly to the height field downwind of the ridge axis
interacting with the nrn jet stream across the nern CONUS.

Eventually, the ridge axis is likely to begin an ewd jaunt as
the PacNW closed low opens and phases into the broader flow.
Timing uncertainties dominate the cluster analysis in this
period, as a strong shortwave trough moves into south-central
Canada and attempts to sync with the opening nwrn-CONUS low.

This system is likely to affect the Upper Ohio Valley in the
Wed-Thu timeframe given the timing uncertainties mentioned
above. At this time, it appears thermal profiles will support
all rain, though a period of freezing rain is possible at onset
on Wednesday, and a changeover to light snow is possible on the
backside early Friday as cooler air moves in.

Temperatures will remain above-average with high confidence
through Thursday, with near seasonal temperatures returning by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue tonight while high clouds filter in from
the west. Expect wind to remain light overnight with surface
decoupling from a 20-25 knot jet overhead. Cloud coverage will
thicken and lower headed into Sunday morning as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching shortwave and warm front.
Probs for MVFR CIGs jump up to 70-90% after 17z for PIT and 18z
for FKL/DUJ; MGW and ZZV are more likely to avoid CIG
restrictions given displacement from the best moisture and lift.

A shield of mostly rain and snow will slide by on Sunday
afternoon with the most effects noted at FKL/DUJ. Probs for
restrictions to IFR CIG and VIS in snow are up to 70+% there as
the column quickly saturates. Have included prevailing IFR
conditions with TEMPO lower during the period when the best
forcing overlaps the dendritic growth zone. The snow is favored
to be on the wetter side with snow to liquid ratios in the
5-8:1 range. Further south, have opted for restrictions to VIS
in rain in PROB30s as it`s more likely that the nature is
scattered for PIT and surrounding terminals. There is a low
confidence potential for a brief period of FZRA at precip onset
if the moisture depth is shallow enough to preclude ice
nucleation. This would primarily be a threat for FKL/DUJ/LBE
where surface temperatures would remain the coldest for the
longest under east/southeast flow. Said flow will be gusty as
an increasing 850 mb jet up to 45 knots overspreads from the
southeast. Mixing will bring down gusts to 20 knots with a
70-90% chance before relaxing in the evening. That trend may
point toward a very short period of LLWS toward
the end of the current TAF period as the surface flow
relaxes and the tail end of the jet is exiting.

CIG restrictions are likely to continue into Sunday night and
expand to MGW after sunset as residual low-level moisture
remains trapped.

Outlook...
Some improvement is expected on Monday as drier air advects in
from the south, though it will be short lived as a passing cold
front overnight Monday night returns precip chances and another
round of restrictions. Periods of gusty winds may also develop
as low pressure crosses north of the region through early next
week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Cermak/CL
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Rackley
LONG TERM...Cermak/Rackley/Milcarek
AVIATION...MLB